Hollywood's Positive Month Doesn't Cure The Patient's Long-Term Issues.
By: MattInRC
Back in late March, we reviewed the top box office performers year-to-date but also lamented about Hollywood's continued domestic woes. Among the bad news we reported at that time:
- As of March 30th, the industry (compounded monthly) was down a staggering 63%;
- Five of the top 10 films were leftover releases from 2012;
- April was similarly terrible, reflecting a 12% loss from 2012 - at $634,100,000 - with a compounded-monthly loss of 75%;
- The market hasn't seen such poor performances since 2011.
These bits of data could have created bad omens for the Summer 2013 schedule, which does not have an Avengers, Dark Knight Rises, or Skyfall (all of which made $2 billion domestically) to lead the charge. But, we did have several intriguing releases such as Star Trek: Into Darkness, Fast Six, and Iron Man 3. So, how did the critical month of May fair for Hollywood? Actually, not too bad - in fact, the industry is up almost 2% from May 2012. But that's not all: according to our friends at BoxOfficeMojo.com, the top 10 has also gone through a tremendous change in just two months, as proven by the following:
- Iron Man 3 $376,745,285
- Oz The Great and Powerful $232,613,195
- The Croods $179,923,061
- Star Trek Into Darkness $164,756,486
- Fast & Furious 6 $135,839,525
- Identity Thief $134,326,175
- The Great Gatsby (2013) $121,990,892
- G.I. Joe: Retaliation $121,311,762
- Olympus Has Fallen $97,776,672
- 42 $91,819,454
Again, new trends emerge, especially when you consider the role which Iron Man 3 has played and what other Summer contenders have failed to accomplish. And while the news is good for The Golden Avenger, (which accounts for 4.4% of the top 10 receipts), other releases including Star Trek: Into Darkness have not fared as well as projected. This is particularly troublesome since Darkness received a vigorous marketing campaign and stellar reviews. In fact, 2009's reboot outpaced the sequel over the same 15-day period, demonstrating that its fan boy/girl base is simply not drawing in repeat customers. That's not the case for Fast Six, as its huge mainstream appeal vaulted it into the top 10 in just 7 days and should continue to demonstrate strength throughout June.
The 2% gain from 2012 is good news and hopefully signals a positive trend which is so badly needed during the critical May-Labor Day sweeps. But the challenge is unique, as is the remedy: Hollywood can't suddenly add new product into the market to shore up sagging losses, or jump off the ride by pulling its future releases off the table. Like being caught on a rollercoaster, the industry will simply have to ride out the early ugly trend, and hope that foreign receipts - a growing powerhouse in a market once dominated by the US - will turn the tide.
For now, the news here is cautiously optimistic - we'll see if trend continues through June.
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