What's Behind 2015's Early Strong Box Office?

The reasons for success could change the way movies are made, marketed, and released.

Story by Matt Cummings

With January and February box office typically representing a rough couple of months for Hollywood, it comes as a surprise that 2015 has been one of the most robust in years. With receipts up 10% from the same period one year ago, theater owners are selling more popcorn and not having to shut down entire wings of their buildings due to the lack of traffic. The reason - or reasons - are simple: American Sniper and Fifty Shades of Grey.

These two titans have pushed ticket sales and general admission numbers to points that we typically don't see until April - that's when tentpoles and more lucrative productions begin to arrive, ushering in the wave of Summer blockbusters. Sniper has made $307.7 million since its opening in January, while Grey became the biggest debut for a movie in February history when it bent over a four-day total of $93 million.

But there's more to it than that: in producing such impressive numbers, we are seeing a reorganization of the way movies are released and who goes to see them. In the past, it was Summer blockbusters which commanded the large crowds; now, soft porn and war themes are bringing people to theaters when typically such times see audiences favoring Oscar contenders. Such changes are good for both Hollywood and their audiences, meaning that movies meant for Summer - such as Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice” and Furious 7 - are moving into earlier slots, instead of waiting to compete against other big titles. This sort of cannibalism caused a drain on their performance (see 2014's The Amazing Spider-man 2, Godzilla, and X-Men: Days of Future Past); movies like 2014's Guardians of the Galaxy succeeded in large part because there was no realistic competition for a full month.

In the past, it was late winter, spring, and early fall where unwanted titles were dumped like The Island of Forgotten Toys. But with Sniper, Grey, August 2014's Guardians, April's Captain America: The Winter Solider, and October 2013's Gravity taking home big numbers, Hollywood is starting to listen. This is an important change that has already affected comic book filmmakers like Disney - who produce Marvel films - and Warner Bros. - who's beginning their DC run of films next year. Both are scheduling these tentpoles years into the future, taking up both prime release dates and off-month ones. In 2016, we'll see this genre spread its wings by releasing six films - not during the Summer months - but from February-November.

This has had a ripple effect on other films that might not have done well in Jan/Feb, had crowds not been attending. Titles like Paddington and The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water drew family crowds, while adults in the family sneaked out to see Sniper and Grey. The lesson here is simple: make mix of great films and crowds will come, regardless of the month. For awhile now, 2015 has been widely accepted as the biggest year for films in perhaps more than a decade, forcing many titles like Furious 7 to find safer ground. This means better films throughout the year, a fact which audiences like because they no longer have to choose where their dollars will be spent, and allowing them to spread out their moviegoing experience over more months. If 2015 is as big as everyone predicts, it will prove that great movies can succeed at any time.

But there are potential clouds on the horizon. Sniper and Grey did account for such large portions of the box office's performance, creating perhaps a top-heavy situation that can't be sustained. March doesn't seem to have any guaranteed winners, with a live-action Cinderella, a Divergent sequel, the odd sci-fi adventure Chappie and the maligned DreamWorks Animation releasing their only 2015 title Home. As a matter of comparison, March 2014 offered us several $100m titles including 300: Rise of an Empire, Noah, Mr. Peabody & Sherman and the first Divergent. Granted, none of those passed $160m, flaming out fairly fast and disappearing from the top 10 by May. Will any of next month's come close to those numbers?

We've also experienced a wave of notable flops since January, including Blackhat, Mortdecai, Jupiter Ascending, and Seventh Son. Had any one of these panned out, we would be even further ahead than 10%. Therefore, it makes Jan/Feb's early successes all that more important.

Once 2015 has a chance to play out, we'll probably be talking about how great this year was. But, 2016 could be healthier in terms of appealing titles spread out over the year. Just like superhero movies did in 2013/2014, we could be seeing a sea change in the way (and when) movies in general are released.

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