Who's made the most box dough so far in 2014? Read on to find out!
Story by: Matt Cummings
Last year around this time, we were lamenting about a
box office down as much as 24% in February and a combined 48% for the year. And while 2013 was later bolstered by the mammoth
Iron Man 3, an amazing
Hunger Games: Catching Fire, and several animated surprises (
Frozen and
DM2) we were still left us with the $64 question: would early 2014 repeat early 2013? The answer is yes and no. January 2014 featured a strong turn around, up nearly 12% from 2013, but February would not continue that positive trend.
Note: The Winter Season is defined as the first day after New Year's week or weekend through the Thursday before the first Friday in March.
According to our friends at BoxOfficeMojo.com, Quarter 1 of 2014 took in an estimated $774 million, as compared to 2013's take of $864.6 million. But while that represents a drop of 10.5% from the previous year, look deeper and the numbers begin to tell a different narrative.
Tentpoles Lead The Way
Consider the fact that 2014 has already sported two $120+ million pictures -
The LEGO Movie and
Ride Along - each of which should stick around several more weeks before fading away. Last year only had one (
Identity Thief, $134m), and
LEGO has already made more ($188m).
Top 10's Compared...
Now, compare the top 10 between years, and things get even more interesting. There, 2014 actually beat 2013 by only a slight margin. That's because we're getting a late boost with
Non-Stop and
Son of God, each of which opened this Friday. With a full weekend to show their stuff, each should do well enough to boost the quarter into positive territory. Finally, not one top 10 film is a previous year's leftover, and a majority of 2014's lot continue to keep theaters around the country from becoming mausoleums. This sort of staying power isn't without issues, which is what happens when we dig even deeper.
...And Then a Little Deeper
Another way to look at this is to compare those films which produced below $100 million for the quarter but still managed to crack the top 10. Here, the difference is significant: in 2013, there were 9 films which produced a total of $518 million, while 2014 had 8 at $335.1 million. In other words, the overall health of the market - something we complained about all through 2013 - is weaker than it should be, relying on larger tentpole projects that either do very well or very poorly.
Big Risks Produce Sweaty Palms
Take
Robocop and its $100 million budget for example. While foreign audiences love it ($100m at the time of this post), it's failed miserably in the domestic market, earning around $46m since its release on February 12. It's now posted a profit, but its budget forced the type of win/lose scenario that seems more like the rule these days than the exception. But
Robocop also demonstrates another fact, one that would make most of us lose significant amounts of sleep: Hollywood's love affair with American audiences is over.
The Nature of The Beast
There's a new reality overtaking American movie-making, one that favors a far different view than the one of just a few years ago. Today, it's clear that Hollywood only mildly cares what happens in Q1, content to endure early losses for the longer view, confident that audiences will agree, while privately hoping one of its early releases will find an audience long enough to get it into April when the real action begins. In the end, their view is also beyond our shores - foreign audiences now drive Hollywood's car, and American-made films are regularly released overseas before premiering here. Our smallish numbers no longer satiate their appetite, and might soon not matter at all. But that's another analysis for another time.
Although the numbers clearly suggest two sides of overall health of the industry is down and domestic numbers suggest a loss, it does appear that Hollywood's making good progress towards early successes, as opposed is back on track. Will that trend continue into next quarter? We'll be here to answer that and other questions.
Discuss this story with fellow SJF fans on Facebook. On Twitter, follow us at @SandwichJohnFilms, and follow author Matt Cummings at@mfc90125.
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