Top Domestic Movies of 2015 - Q1 Report

Interesting lessons learned as Q1 ends up 3.1%.

Story by Matt Cummings

When the 2015 box office arrived to much ballyhoo, audiences stood wide-eyed at the possibilities. "Biggest year in film ever" was chanted in theaters and blogs as we stood ready for the quarter 1 wave. And while the box office in general was up, a deeper look suggests an interesting trend.

Note: The Winter Season is defined as the first day after New Year's week or weekend through the Thursday before the first Friday in March.

According to our friends at BoxOfficeMojo.com, Quarter 1 of 2015 $2.475 billion domestically, as compared to 2014's take of $2.4b's and 2013's $2.274b. Here's the master list, but notice the problem. We'll share it afterwards:

1. American Sniper $344,257,525
2. Fifty Shades of Grey $165,089,610
3. The SpongeBob Movie $160,393,302
4. Cinderella (2015) $153,247,557
5. Kingsman $119,975,617
6. Insurgent $89,693,985
7. Taken 3 $88,982,382
8. Paddington $74,748,862
9. The Imitation Game $70,662,097
10. Battle of the Five Armies $65,564,457


See the trend? Three of the top 10 films were 2014 releases, not 2015 ones. True, American Sniper premiered in December 2014 to make Oscar consideration, but until Furious 7 arrived, a 2014 film was the highest grossing film of 2015. Take it out of the true release schedule, and the numbers change drastically:
1. Fifty Shades of Grey $165,089,610
2. The SpongeBob Movie $160,393,302
3. Cinderella (2015) $153,247,557
4. Kingsman $119,975,617
5. Insurgent $89,693,985
6. Taken 3 $88,982,382
7. Paddington $74,748,862
8. Wedding Ringer $64,387,847
9. Home (2015) $60,315,191
10. Focus (2015) $52,142,312
TOTAL: $1,028,976,665

With receipts of $1.02b, that's a difference of over $300m, led entirely by American Sniper. We went back one year to see if the trend continued. Here's the master list of Q1 receipts from 2014:
1. The LEGO Movie $248,466,064 2/7/2014
2. Frozen $135,334,008 11/22/2013
3. Ride Along $133,684,465 1/17/2014
4. Lone Survivor $124,786,118 12/25/2013
5. Rise of An Empire $101,448,843 3/7/2014
6. Divergent $96,042,660 3/21/2014
7. Mr. Peabody & Sherman $95,084,995 3/7/2014
8. Non-Stop $85,392,860 2/28/2014
9 American Hustle $82,509,796 12/13/2013
10. The Monuments Men $76,625,973 2/7/2014
TOTAL: $1,179,375,782

And here's the adjusted list:
1. The LEGO Movie $248,466,064
2. Ride Along $133,684,465
3. Rise of An Empire $101,448,843
4. Divergent $96,042,660
5. Mr. Peabody & Sherman $95,084,995
6. Non-Stop $85,392,860
7. The Monuments Men $76,625,973
8. The Nut Job $63,133,469
9. Son of God $59,700,064
10. RoboCop (2014) $57,289,708
TOTAL: $959,579,393

So, there is a definite trend when analyzing Q1: previous year's films dominate (and skew) the numbers. What's a box office reporter to do?

$100m Films

We think the best way to look at Q1 numbers is to see how many of the top 10 2015 releases made $100 or more. It's much harder to achieve this number, as families tend to stay home with their holiday presents in January, their Netflix in February, and de-snow themselves in March. In 2015, the number of movies which made $100m or more was 4; in 2014, it was 3. That and the BO's overall number tell us enough: Q1 2015 was not only bigger than 2014, it was healthier.

The Nature of The Beast

Last year at this time, we said that Hollywood only mildly cared what happened in Q1, content to endure early losses for brighter shores overseas, and knowing that April's long lines domestically weren't too far down the road. What's clear in our analysis is that American audiences shouldn't be counted out quite yet. Q1 was not only productive but resulted in several films that will probably make our Best-Of list. Make good films and people will fill theaters, regardless of weather. The numbers clearly suggest that the domestic health of the industry is good, even if American Sniper absolutely skewed the numbers. Will that trend continue into next quarter? We'll be here to answer that and other questions.

Discuss this review with fellow SJF fans on Facebook. On Twitter, follow us at @SandwichJohnFilms, and follow author Matt Cummings at @mfc90125.