2015 Box Office Already Destroying 2014

The numbers are impressive, but what lessons can be learned from them?

Story by Matt Cummings

As if we didn't know already, the 2015 box office is certainly gearing up to be one of the biggest ever. We pontificated about this in our Big Movie Questions article back in January, but already the numbers are proving we were right to be excited.

According to our friends at BoxOfficeMojo, the first 46 days of the 2015 box office have generated $1.45 billion, which represents the biggest start for the industry since 2010's $1.48 billion. That's 11% higher than 2014 and 26% higher than 2013. Moreover, the top 10 releases in 2015 combined to take in over $925m as compared to a paltry $775m for the year prior.

Comparing 2015 and 2014 also yielded the following information:

Both year's top performers (Lone Survivor and American Sniper) were released in their previous years.

2014 had four $100m movies by February 15 (Lone Survivor, Ride Along, The LEGO Movie, Frozen), while 2015 has only one (American Sniper).

At five, both 2015 and 2014 have the same number of films released in the previous year in their respective top 10 lists.

The news keeps getting worse for Sony Pictures, who had two films in the top 10 in 2014 but have zero in 2015.

So why the incredible differences year-to-year? Simply put, it's due to American Sniper, which commands a staggering 33% of the 2015 market. That's far higher than any 2014 film (14.7%), but much lower than 2010's Avatar, which held on to a whopping 38% of the market.

And even with this incredible success, 2015 has already experienced several high-profile failures. These include Blackhat, Mortdecai, Seventh Son, and Jupiter Ascending, with the latter being the only one to crack the top 20. At posting, all of these had combined to make a shocking $69m. These four might easily go down as the worst of the quarter and perhaps for all of 2015's nationwide releases.

So, what lesson(s) can be learned? Here are our favorites:

The box office has recently relied on films from previous years to keep January and February afloat.

One film seems guaranteed to overtake the national zeitgeist and rake in either big bucks or generate a lot of buzz.

The patience of the moviegoing public only extends so far, and even big-budget films with top-tier talent are not enough to get butts in seats, if the perception exists that what they're being given is more of the same (see Johnny Depp as Mortdecai and Seventh Son).

With so many great tentpoles planning to open late in 2015, we should continue to see previous year's films popping up around this time in 2016.

One more piece of information to share: 2015's numbers don't include the significant predicted Monday hauls for 50 Shades of Grey, which when added with other titles could push this year's top 10 past $1b, beating 2010 fair and square.

UPDATE: Since this story posted, we've learned that 2015's opening could become one of the largest hauls in history, with only 2010 ($37m) and 2009 (just $6m) arriving ahead.

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