The official start of the summer movie season is one month away, but that doesn't matter for Disney and Marvel. One of their 2014 tentpoles in Captain America: The Winter Soldier is days away from its domestic launch, and tracking indicates the sequel is poised to top the $85.7 million opening of its cinematic universe's spiritual predecessor, Thor: The Dark World. Simultaneously, the Steve Rogers follow-up chapter is aiming to push through Fast Five's $86.2 million bow three years ago and stake the best April opening ever.
For some brief number-crunching: The Winter Soldier is driving equal or higher interest among men and women of all ages compared to last November's Thor sequel. Men over the age of 25 polled nearly 20 percent stronger "first choice" numbers at the same point in the pre-release cycle. Women under 25 represent another noticeable area of improved interest. One minor trouble spot is in unaided awareness, which lagged behind Dark World by nearly 50 percent as of Monday. The film's final marketing push could still close that gap before Friday.
When it comes to online buzz, Soldier has nothing to fear: Twitter activity has stood out consistently, the film is adding Facebook fans at a quicker pace than Thor 2 during its week of release (Captain claims 10.8 million total fans as of Tuesday), and Flixster's user base has given it a superb 99 percent "want to see" score across 139,000+ voters (also besting The Dark World). Presently, that combination of figures tops any other 2014 movie.
The April 4 release date marks experimental territory for Disney/Marvel and the entire industry. Before 2009, no April title had generated an opening weekend of more than $42.2 million. Two Fast & Furious franchise sequels and Clash of the Titans changed the status quo between 2009 and 2011, opening Hollywood up to the idea that audiences will turn out for event films no matter when they're released. The Hunger Games further cemented the notion when it delivered one of the best openings in history ($152.5 million) back in March 2012.
April has never seen a film debut over $100 million, but with The Winter Soldier, a first real contender for nine-figure success has presented itself.
The Captain America sequel is coming off its $75.2 million overseas debut from 32 markets last weekend. That trailed the $109.4 million 36-country launch of Thor: The Dark World, but already represents 39 percent of Captain America: The First Avenger's $193.9 million international cume in 2011. As the tentpole character of the Avengers franchise, Iron Man 3 posted an overseas opening of $198.4 million from 42 markets at the start of last summer.
Winter Soldier wasn't expected to open as large as the Iron Man or Thor sequels internationally due to the former brand's domestic-leaning appeal, competition with Paramount's Noah, and its release outside of a major moviegoing season.
Further snowballing audience enthusiasm are ecstatic critical reactions that champion the new direction and action-thriller concepts brought to the series by directors Anthony and Joe Russo. Winter Soldier boasts an impressive 92 percent "fresh" rating from 60 Rotten Tomatoes reviews as of Tuesday morning. If it holds around that mark, the sequel would finish on par with Iron Man and The Avengers (93 and 92 percent, respectively)--excellent news for word of mouth as those films represent the leggiest installments of Marvel's Cinematic Universe. Positive reports from those who have seen the film point to more long-term potential than Thor: The Dark World's $206 million domestic haul.
With the most Avengers connections of any of Marvel's Phase Two films (largely thanks to the presence of Scarlett Johansson's Black Widow and Samuel L. Jackson's Nick Fury), moviegoers have even more reason to turn out for the Captain's second solo outing.
Additionally, the film's marketing team has done an excellent job at playing up the "must-see" factor by showing off the film's massive visual scale and set pieces. Should things continue firing on all cylinders, Winter Soldier is in store for a global tally well north of $500 million.
Stay tuned to BoxOffice for further updates on Captain America: The Winter Soldier's domestic release and continued overseas rollout.
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Source-Boxoffice.com
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