Does May finally bring moviegoers back to theaters?
By: MattInRC
With crowds still staying away from theaters in droves - April 2013 was down 21% from April 2012 - the movie season is about a huge shot in the arm, with no less than 4 potential $200 million domestic grossers slated for release - Iron Man 3, Star Trek Into Darkness, Fast Six, and The Hangover Part III. That's an impressive lineup, and one that Hollywood desperately needs big numbers from in order to right their ship. Let's take a look at each of these by week:
May 3
Iron Man 3 is already a monster at the box office, potentially to take in a mesmerizing $175 million in its opening weekend. And while that's exactly what Hollywood needed, it's actually lower than last year's The Avengers, which opened to a $207.4 million domestic weekend. Say what you want about the film's treatment of The Mandarin, it seems like the film has already set a pretty high bar for the Summer 2013 season.
May 10
The only movie in this week we really care about in this week is Director Baz Luhrman's adaptation of F. Scott Fitzgerald's novel The Great Gatsby. The previews look amazing, but if early buzz is any indication, it could fall very short of expectations. That's not to say it won't make a projected $100 million in its opening, but some are worried that it will tail off very early, based on next week's Star Trek: Into Darkness.
May 17
Fast on the heels of Gatsby comes the only film arriving this week: Star Trek Into Darkness, the follow-up to the successful 2009 reboot ($257.7 million). Like Gatsby, the trailers look amazing, with Director JJ Abrams upping the stakes, with graphic scenes of the Enterprise's fall from space and the enigmatic baddie, played by Sherlock lead Benedict Cumberbatch. Although we expect long lines initially for it, look for ST to bow out domestically a bit earlier than planned, as other new releases provide some stiff competition. Paramount will need a strong overseas showing to keep Kirk and company relevant through May and into June.
May 24
Memorial Day weekend always provides audiences with something interesting; this time, it's Fast Six and The Hangover Part III. Initially one would look at these two and think they're guaranteed $200 million performers; but dig deeper and you realize their target audiences are the same. Could this mean both will bite into each other's profits, leading to lower openings and finishes? Possibly. Either way, it's not a smart move. Our bet is for Fast Six - coming off an impressive release in Fast Five, the film returns all its cast and adds Haywire badass Gina Carano alongside Dwayne Johnson. It's also a series that's grown up from its fast cars/fast women plots to crime capers with fast cars and fast women. Yes, we always like a intrigue, and Fast Six should outperform the tired Hangover.
A film that could surprise is the family animated Epic, the first since The Croods opened at the end of March. In a season with fast cars and crashing starships, Epic could be an overacheiver with families looking for something more tame. Our friends at BoxOfficeMojo predict the film will eventually make $100 million, but we're inclined to think slightly higher.
May 31
There's only one play day left in the month, and it's filled with the unimpressive-looking After Earth. The Will and Jaden Smith sci-fi adventure was recently moved up one week from its June 7 release, but we're not sure whether audiences will be any more excited. Based on the performance of Oblivion, it's possible that After Earth might be viewed as merely trying to copy the Tom Cruise post-apocalyptic Earth scenario. With all the competition from above still in the mix, it's hard to imagine that we'll see a strong showing.
With Hollywood anteing up big time, there's an outside possibility that its hand is actually too good, and that each of them could cannibalize the other later in the month, leading to lower receipts than planned. We haven't seen this kind of competition since November/December 2012, but that was during the Oscar season, a time when people hide from the weather in warm theaters. With the sun shining bright in many states, audiences might continue to choose outdoor activities than seeing a film every week. Why Hollywood doesn't do a better job with its scheduling is beyond us, but there's a growing opinion within SJF that domestic numbers might continue to lag, and that the audience malaise we've see so far in 2013 might continue through May. That would be disastrous, but given that we're still seeing double-digit losses each month, anything is possible.
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